Just 60 days prior that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while his coach scolded him for not reading a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether his performances were an indicator or the reason of Villa's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, though, the touchline reaction proved to be decidedly more positive. As the in-form star drilled in his brace-sealing goal to restore the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, spread his arms and bellowed. Villa were on their way to ten wins in a row and having failed to win their initial half-dozen matches, now sit a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Title Contenders?
That’s a particularly tough proposition to address. History, a general sense of Villa, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been entirely convincing this season, despite the fact the positive results have piled up.
As per statistical analysis, in only two games has the side had an expected goals figure notably superior than the opposition. For a side who have just won 10 in a row, they appear weirdly vulnerable – however at the moment the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition before hoping their talisman to rescue them with a couple of crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and once more against Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, curled precisely inside the upright from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a somewhat messier replica of his first capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opponents registered more efforts and more direct attempts. Villa have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent the club must confront in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot maintain thrashing the ball into the top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is a different scenario whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players might still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward could start finding the net regularly.
- The winger may rediscover the player he resembled in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, bolstering a periodically leaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a title challenge, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.
Savoring the Moment
However, this was unforeseen. Few believed Aston Villa would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, few could imagine the midfielder by the end of the year would be spearheading a title charge while establishing himself as a vital player for the national team.
The current run is to be savoured exactly since it feels so unlikely. When Rogers stood in front of the home supporters after the match orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
